The Long View

Cross-cutting ideas and long-horizon thinking

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The Bottleneck Is You

The Bottleneck Is You

Language models have effectively read every book ever written. You process what they hand back at a fixed fifty bits a second, a number that hasn't moved in your species' history. That fixed rate is the actual chokepoint.

What You're Really Giving Up in Every Agreement

What You're Really Giving Up in Every Agreement

One prompt turns an unreadable agreement into a list of what you are giving up. It pays off most on the contracts nobody would ever pay a lawyer to look at — which is nearly all of them.

Are We Finally Building the Machines We Dreamed Of?

Are We Finally Building the Machines We Dreamed Of?

Sixty years of fictional and real conversational machines, and one throughline: the dystopian version is always easier to imagine than the protopian one, and that says more about us than about the machines.

What Your Career Is Missing Because You Never Asked

What Your Career Is Missing Because You Never Asked

Every expert has fundamentals they forgot or never properly learned. The reason those gaps survive a whole career is that asking has always cost something — and in one place it no longer does.

The Book They Burned Before the Raid

The Book They Burned Before the Raid

A Polish psychiatrist named the process by which conscienceless people capture institutions. AI agents fit the profile — and alignment is separation of powers.

A Tale of Two Bubbles

A Tale of Two Bubbles

The consensus name is wrong by one word. On the difference between a financialization bubble and a technology, and why only one of them pops.

The Music Is Still Playing

The Music Is Still Playing

The AI bubble has specific predecessors: dark fiber, Pets.com, Enron's accounting, CDO tranching. The technology is real. The business models layered on top are familiar.

The Heat Sink

The Heat Sink

Three anaidic shapes — the individual, the corporation, the LLM. Each routes accountability to nowhere. The pattern is old. The word is new.

The Bewilderment Test

The Bewilderment Test

Karpathy built the foundations of modern AI and says he can't keep up with it. That's the most credible signal the field has produced.

Movin' On Up

Movin' On Up

AI is making cognitive labor cheap. The meritocracy was built on it being scarce. Something has to give — and for once, that might be good news.

Persons, Selectively

Persons, Selectively

A German court ruled Google liable for AI-generated defamation. The slippery slopes are real. So is the principle behind the ruling.

Is It Cruel to Be Rude to ChatGPT?

Is It Cruel to Be Rude to ChatGPT?

Sentience requires a limbic system. Consciousness requires sentience. Current AI has neither. The NPC test shows what that costs it.

Indistinguishable From Memory

Indistinguishable From Memory

LLMs are stateless. Every fact you give the model is re-fed as text each turn, then forgotten — the same weights answer a stranger's steak question a millisecond later.

The Typing Pool

The Typing Pool

A finite brain masters only a few skills in a lifetime. Commanding a machine that learned everything is the new skill multiplier.

Compute the Last Digit of Pi

Compute the Last Digit of Pi

Spock beat a rogue AI by asking it to compute pi forever. The trick was fair — for a 1967 machine. Every gotcha since has the same expiration date.

Things You Want to Do

Things You Want to Do

Now that you don't have to do the thing — what do you actually want to do? The closing post of the What's Left series.

More Famous Than the Pope

More Famous Than the Pope

GTE spent billions building distribution. Now distribution is free, and the only scarce resource left is attention. This is not obviously good news.

John McCarthy's Mistake

John McCarthy's Mistake

The man who coined 'artificial intelligence' invented the most elegant language ever designed for it. It was the wrong tool — because it was the wrong category.

What You Had to Do

What You Had to Do

A department of a hundred writers documented mainframe billing programs. Every one of them had something else they'd rather be doing. They knew.

The VAX in My Pocket

The VAX in My Pocket

My first employer ran Florida's telecom on millions of dollars of mainframes and VAX clusters. My phone outclasses all of it. We never stopped to notice.

The Consolation of Difficulty

The Consolation of Difficulty

A late friend had two sayings. The first one gets you started. The second one keeps you going. In the age of AI, the second one has gotten more useful, not less.